Probability, at root, is a tool for expressing uncertainty — a measure of what could happen relative to what is known. Yet in physics, it is frequently treated as an ontological feature of reality itself, as if the world inherently “is” probabilistic rather than relationally structured.
This is the distortion: a measure of ignorance recast as a property of being.
The Physics Move
In interpretations of quantum mechanics, probabilities are sometimes treated as objective propensities in nature rather than statements about relational constraints and actualisation.
Statistical mechanics frames macroscopic behavior probabilistically, often implying that the world itself is “random” at its core.
In cosmology, probability distributions over initial conditions or multiverse ensembles are sometimes treated as physically real “stuff,” rather than as analytical tools for reasoning about possible configurations.
Why This Distorts Ontology
Probability does not exist independently; it is a lens for expressing relational possibilities and constraints, not a constituent of reality. Treating chance as ontic creates an epistemic fog: what is a method of reasoning is mistaken for what actually exists.
The distortion lies in promoting epistemic descriptors to ontological status, masking the relational actualisation of events beneath a veil of “objective randomness.”
The Relational Reframing
From a relational standpoint:
Probabilities encode the alignment of constraints and potentials relative to the context of observation.
Quantum outcomes, statistical ensembles, and cosmological distributions are intelligible as patterns of possibility actualising, not as intrinsic stochasticity.
Apparent randomness is a feature of perspectival uncertainty, not a property of entities or spacetime.
Thus, probability is intelligible — but only as a tool for reasoning about relational dynamics, not as a primitive of reality.
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